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☆ The Job Market Shifted Into Lower Gear
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

After a winter of rapid growth in the American labor market, April’s jobs numbers delivered a more mixed picture. Employers added 175,000 positions, less than economists had expected and well below the average over the last year; and the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9 percent. “But really, the slowdown shouldn’t be a big surprise, and isn’t particularly worrisome.”Layoffs remained low and most job sectors appeared stable. Wage growth eased notably, though the unemployment rate remained under 4 percent for the 27th consecutive month — the longest stretch in more than 50 years. In fact, some economists said that the April data offered hopeful hints that the economy was headed toward a more stable footing.

Persons: We’ve, Ben Casselman, “, ” Ben Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ U.S. Growth Slowed in First Quarter, but Inflation Remained a Bug
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. economy remained resilient early this year, with a strong job market fueling robust consumer spending. The trouble is that inflation was resilient, too. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was down sharply from the 3.4 percent growth rate at the end of 2023 and fell well short of forecasters’ expectations. “It would suggest some moderation in growth but still a solid economy,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America.

Persons: ”, Michael Gapen Organizations: Gross, Commerce Department, Bank of America Locations: U.S

☆ U.S. Economy Grew at 1.6% Rate in First Quarter Slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. economy continued to grow but at a sharply slower rate early this year, as strong consumer spending was offset by pockets of weakness in other sectors. Taken on its own, the downshift in growth is not necessarily worrisome, particularly given that the Federal Reserve has been trying to cool off the economy. And the weaker first quarter numbers were driven in part by big shifts in business inventories and international trade, which often swing wildly from one quarter to the next. Still, the slowdown has come at the same time that the Fed’s fight against inflation has stalled: Prices rose more quickly in the first quarter than at the end of last year. That raises the uncomfortable possibility that high interest rates are taking a toll on economic activity but not succeeding in fully taming inflation.

Organizations: Gross, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ ‘Pay Later’ Lenders Have an Issue With Credit Bureaus
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Jordyn Holman | Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Shoppers in recent years have embraced “buy now, pay later” loans as an easy, interest-free way to purchase everything from sweaters to concert tickets. The loans typically are not reported on consumers’ credit reports, however, or reflected in their credit scores. So in February, when Apple announced it would start reporting loans made through its Apple Pay Later program to Experian, one of the three major U.S. credit bureaus, it looked like a watershed moment for the fast-growing “buy now, pay later” category. But none of the other major pay-later providers have followed Apple’s lead. And while credit bureaus and lenders say they are interested in finding a way to work together, the gulf between the two sides remains wide — so much so that some pay-later firms are exploring creating an alternative credit bureau to handle their loans.

Organizations: Apple

The Federal Reserve is likely to wait longer than initially expected to cut interest rates given stubborn inflation readings in recent months, the central bank’s top two officials said Tuesday. Policymakers came into 2024 looking for evidence that inflation was continuing to cool rapidly, as it did late last year. Instead, progress on inflation has stalled or even reversed by some measures. But he stopped short of saying he expected rates will need to stay at their current levels, 5.3 percent, deep into this year. Last month, Fed officials indicated that they expect to cut rates three times by the end of 2024.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Philip N, Jefferson Organizations: Federal Locations: Washington

☆ 3 Facts That Help Explain a Confusing Economic Moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The path to a “soft landing” doesn’t seem as smooth as it did four months ago. April 13, 2024The economic news of the past two weeks has been enough to leave even seasoned observers feeling whipsawed. Compared with the outlook in December, when the economy seemed to be on a glide path to a surprisingly smooth “soft landing,” the recent news has been disappointing. And yet inflation, even accounting for its recent hiccups, has cooled significantly, while the rest of the economy has so far escaped significant damage. “It seems churlish to complain about where we are right now,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution.

Persons: ”, Wendy Edelberg Organizations: Hamilton, Brookings Institution

☆ Housing Costs Continued to Rise Faster Than Before the Pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Housing costs rose 0.4 percent in March and were up 5.7 percent from a year earlier, both unchanged from the month before. Shelter inflation has cooled since last year, when it peaked at more than 8 percent, but lately that progress has slowed. Housing is by far the largest monthly expense for most families, which means it also weighs heavily in inflation calculations. Before the pandemic, shelter costs rose at a rate of about 3.5 percent per year. Housing costs in the Consumer Price Index are based on rents.

Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ New Questions on How a Key Agency Shared Inflation Data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Ben Casselman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shared more information about inflation with Wall Street “super users” than previously disclosed, emails from the agency show. The revelation is likely to prompt further scrutiny of the way the government shares economic data at a time when such information keenly interests investors. An economist at the agency set off a firestorm in February when he sent an email to a group of data users explaining how a methodological tweak could have contributed to an unexpected jump in housing costs in the Consumer Price Index the previous month. The email, addressed to “Super Users,” circulated rapidly around Wall Street, where every detail of inflation data can affect the bond market. And they suggest that there was a list of super users, contrary to the agency’s denials.

Persons: ”, — Organizations: Labor Statistics, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall

☆ Email ‘Mistake’ on Inflation Data Prompts Questions on What Is Shared
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Ben Casselman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

One afternoon in late February, an employee at the Bureau of Labor Statistics sent an email about an obscure detail in the way the government calculates inflation — and set off an unlikely firestorm. Economists on Wall Street had spent two weeks puzzling over an unexpected jump in housing costs in the Consumer Price Index. Several had contacted the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the numbers, to inquire. Now, an economist inside the bureau thought he had solved the mystery. In an email addressed to “Super Users,” the economist explained a technical change in the calculation of the housing figures.

Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve

44% Share of fully remote and hybrid workers 29% 17% 9% High school or less Some college Bachelor’s degree Graduate degree 44% Share of fully remote and hybrid workers 29% 17% 9% High school or less Some college Bachelor’s degree Graduate degreeWho Still Works From Home? A graphic shows a grid of squares representing 143 million workers between 18 and 64. Roughly 80 percent of those work fully in person. Remote work also breaks down along gender lines — though it does not lend itself to a simple narrative. But those gains come primarily from fully remote work, not the hybrid model that has come to dominate some industries.

Persons: ’, it’s, “, ” Organizations: Gallup, College, Workers, Economic, Group, Employers Locations: United States, American

Among registered voters nationwide, 26 percent believe the economy is good or excellent, according to polling in late February by The New York Times and Siena College. The movement occurred disproportionately among older Democrats, a constituency already likely to vote for Mr. Biden. And the share of voters saying they approve of the job Mr. Biden is doing in office has actually fallen, to 36 percent in the latest poll, from 39 percent in July. Inflation has pervaded economic sentiment since mid-2022, confronting voters daily with the price of everything from eggs to car insurance. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters in the Times/Siena poll rated the price of food and consumer goods as poor.

Persons: Biden doesn’t, Mr, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College, Times Locations: Siena

☆ Rents Are Falling. So Why Isn’t That Showing Up in Inflation Data?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Federal Reserve may have a housing problem. The persistence of housing inflation poses a problem for Fed officials as they consider when to roll back interest rates. Housing is by far the biggest monthly expense for most families, which means it weighs heavily on inflation calculations. “If you want to know where inflation is going, you need to know where housing inflation is going,” said Mark Franceski, managing director at Zelman & Associates, a housing research firm. Housing inflation, he added, “is not slowing at the rate that we expected or anyone expected.”Those expectations were based on private-sector data from real estate websites like Zillow and Apartment List and other private companies showing that rents have barely been rising recently and have been falling outright in some markets.

Persons: ”, Mark Franceski Organizations: Labor Department, Zelman, Associates

☆ Three Lessons From a Surprisingly Resilient Job Market
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The pandemic created an economic crisis unlike any recession on record. So perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that the aftermath, too, has played out in a way that almost no economists expected. Instead, the recovery in the labor market has been, by many measures, the strongest on record. Others were skeptical: Similar predictions in recent years — in some cases from the same forecasters — had failed to come true. Instead, the central bank has raised rates to their highest level in decades, and the job market is holding steady, or perhaps even gaining steam.

Persons: — Organizations: Federal Reserve

Many economists spent early 2023 predicting a painful downturn, a view so widely held that some commentators started to treat it as a given. Unemployment remains at historic lows and consumers continue to spend even with Federal Reserve interest rates at a 22-year high. Why did economists get so much wrong, and what can policymakers learn from those mistakes as they try to anticipate what might come next? But what is clear is that old models of how growth and inflation relate did not serve as accurate guides. Bad luck drove more of the initial burst of inflation than some economists appreciated.

Organizations: Federal Locations: America, academia

☆ U.S. Economy Grew at 3.3% Rate in Latest Quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. economy continued to grow at a healthy pace at the end of 2023, capping a year in which unemployment remained low, inflation cooled and a widely predicted recession never materialized. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was down from the 4.9 percent rate in the third quarter but easily topped forecasters’ expectations and showed the resilience of the recovery from the pandemic’s economic upheaval. Instead, growth accelerated: For the full year, measured from the end of 2022 to the end of 2023, G.D.P. (A different measure, based on average output over the full year, showed annual growth of 2.5 percent in 2023.)

Organizations: Gross, Commerce Department Locations: U.S, G.D.P

☆ Grounded Boeing Max 9 Jets Could Resume Flying Within Days
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal regulators on Wednesday cleared the way for Boeing 737 Max 9 jets to fly again — but also said they would put new limits on production of the troubled planes. The Federal Aviation Administration grounded about 170 Max 9 planes on Jan. 6 after a body panel detached from an Alaska Airlines Max 9 minutes after the flight took off from Portland, Ore., leaving a gaping hole in the side of the jet. On Wednesday, the agency approved a set of inspection and maintenance procedures and said airlines could resume flying the jets once the checks were complete. The process includes requiring airlines to inspect certain bolts and fasteners and to re-torque fasteners on the panel, known as a door plug, which is placed where an emergency exit door would be if a jet had more seats. United Airlines said that it would begin inspecting its 79 Max 9 planes under the new guidelines and that it expected to start using them again on flights on Sunday.

Organizations: Boeing, Max, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines Max, United Airlines, Sunday . Alaska Airlines Locations: Portland ,, Sunday

☆ The U.S. Seems to Be Dodging a Recession. What Could Go Wrong?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Seems to Be Dodging a Recession. But as 2024 begins to unfold, risks remain. Credit... Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times

Persons: Maansi Srivastava Organizations: U.S, New York

☆ A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

And now interest rates have soared to a 20-year high, eroding buying power without — in defiance of normal economic logic — doing much to dent prices. They have been insulated from rising interest rates and, to a degree, from rising consumer prices. Their monthly housing costs are, for the most part, locked in place. Because the interest rate is fixed, homeowners get to freeze their monthly loan payments for as much as three decades, even if inflation picks up or interest rates rise. But because most U.S. mortgages can be paid off early with no penalty, homeowners can simply refinance if rates go down.

Persons: Buyers

At Burlington Bagel Bakery, a sign in the window advertises wages starting at $25 an hour. Cabot Creamery is bringing workers from out of state to package its signature blocks of Cheddar cheese. More than a fifth of Vermonters are 65 or older, and more than 35 percent are over 54, the age at which Americans typically begin to exit the work force. Vermont offers an early look at where the rest of the country could be headed. The baby boom population is aging out of the work force, and subsequent generations aren’t large enough to fully replace it.

Organizations: Champlain, Burlington Bagel, Central Vermont Medical Center Locations: Burlington, Cabot, Vermont

Biden administration officials, worried that a growing conflict in the Middle East could send global oil prices soaring, are looking for ways to hold down American gasoline prices if such a jump occurs. President Biden tapped the reserve aggressively last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices skyrocketing, leaving the amount of oil in those reserves at historically low levels. The conflict in the Middle East has not yet sent oil prices surging. Administration officials are wary of the possibility that prices could again jump above $5 a gallon, a level they briefly touched in the spring of 2022. “In some ways, they’ve missed the boat.”

Persons: Biden, That’s, Mr, ”, Amrita Sen, Sen, “, they’ve Organizations: Biden, nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, AAA Locations: Saudi Arabia, Gulf of Mexico, Ukraine, Israel, Iran

American families saw the largest jump in their wealth on record between 2019 and 2022, according to Federal Reserve data released on Wednesday, as rising stock indexes, climbing home prices and repeated rounds of government stimulus left people’s finances healthier. At the same time, median family income increased by 3 percent between 2018 and 2021 after subtracting out price increases. While income gains were most pronounced for the affluent, the data showed clearly that Americans made nearly across-the-board financial progress in the three years that include the pandemic. But the Fed report, which is released every three years, is considered the gold standard in data about the financial circumstances of households. It offers the most comprehensive snapshot of everything from savings to stock ownership across racial, wealth and age groups.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed’s Survey, Consumer Finances

☆ Pay Gains Are Slowing, Easing Worries on Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

American workers got smaller pay increases in August. But the slowdown in wage gains is consistent with other evidence suggesting a gradual cooling in the labor market. For workers, the pain of slower wage growth is being offset, at least to some degree, by cooling inflation. Price increases outpaced pay gains for much of last year, but that trend has since reversed. Pay, adjusted for inflation, has risen in recent months; the Labor Department will release August price data later this month.

Persons: Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Employers, Labor Department

☆ Fresh Look at Data Shaves Just a Hair Off U.S. Job Growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The red-hot American job market might be just a couple of degrees cooler than previously believed. There were 306,000 fewer nonagricultural jobs in the United States in March than initially reported, according to revised data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday. That suggests employers added jobs at a slightly slower rate in 2022 and early 2023 than more timely — but less accurate — monthly data suggested. The recent strength of the job market has surprised economists, who expected the rapid increase in interest rates to lead to a more significant slowdown in hiring. Some forecasters thought that the monthly jobs figures were overstating hiring, and that the annual update would show a substantial downward revision.

Organizations: Labor Department Locations: United States

Competition for workers is fierce: The Wendy’s on Mr. Bellman’s drive home from work advertises wages of $18 an hour. New Hampshire is surrounded by states where the minimum wage is above $13, so if Granite State employers tried to offer substantially less, many workers could cross the border for a bigger paycheck. Paige Roberts, president and chief executive of the Jackson County Chamber of Commerce in Mississippi, said she was “nearly laughed out of a job” when she started asking members about paying the minimum wage. Faster hikes in the wage floor in the late 2010s forced up long-stagnant wages in fields like restaurants and retail. And some businesses, such as summer camps, say they are still paying the minimum wage for entry-level workers or those in training.

Persons: Bellman’s, Mr, Bellman, Paige Roberts Organizations: Granite, Jackson County Chamber of Commerce Locations: New Hampshire, Granite State, Alabama, Mississippi, Jackson County

Good news is bad news: It had been the mantra in economic circles ever since inflation took off in early 2021. A strong job market and rapid consumer spending risked fueling further price increases and evoking a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve. But suddenly, good news is starting to feel good again. Inflation has finally begun to moderate in earnest, even as economic growth has remained positive and the labor market has continued to chug along. The economy could still be in for a big slowdown as the full impact of the Fed’s higher borrowing costs is felt.

Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: chug

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